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Wednesday 12 December 2007

Bali Briefing: 1


As the first day of the High-Level segment of the conference begins, let’s have a look at progress so far.

Launching the negotiations on a climate change deal for the post-2012 period, the UN hopes to set the agenda for these negotiations and to reach agreement on when they will have to be concluded.

The current fly (more like an locust, really) in the ointment is the range of cuts to be achieved by 2020: the UN, supported by the UK and Europe, wants developed countries to commit to cuts of 25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020; the US, on the other hand, rejects any binding commitment to maintain temperature rises to below the two-degree threshold, and wants these ‘hard numbers’ removed from the draft (due to “uncertainties” contained within current scientific studies such as the latest IPCC report.). The US is also pushing for developing nations, particularly its economic rivals India and China, to share the burden of cuts.

However, back home, there are ominous rumblings in the bowels of the US political beast.

Both the Senate and House of Representatives have advanced Bills that would reduce US carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and put further efficiency measures into place.

The Senate's Environment and Public Works Committee has voted 11-8 to cut emissions by about 70 per cent by 2050. This Bill would limit business emissions.

A second Bill, passed by the House of Representatives on Thursday, requires vehicles to achieve an average of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. Under the terms of the bill, electrical utilities would also have to produce 15 per cent of their power from renewable sources by 2020, and conventional lightbulbs would be banned.

Unsurprisingly, Bush is no fan, but his opponents in the upcoming election think differently. Could this be another Australia come election day?

Anyway, back to Bali. The text of the draft agreement will be continuously updated until this Friday, when a final agreement must be reached.

So what has been agreed so far?

Well, consensus has been reached on the Adaptation fund, which will be set up to finance concrete adaptation projects in developing country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. It will initially be funded by a levy on the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM – the CDM provides for Annex I Parties to implement project activities that reduce emissions in non-Annex I Parties, in return for certified emission reductions), and will become operational with the start of the protocol’s first commitment period in 2008.

There’s also been progress on carbon capture and storage, and for the first time it’s being considered for possible inclusion as an activity under the CDM.

It sounds like the 25-40 issue will keep everyone busy for the next few days as the details of the draft are hammered out. And since it’s already 19.15 over there, hopefully we’ll hear more soon!

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